NFL MID-SEASON PREDICTIONS
Well I will start this off with posting this link to my preseason predictions column.
http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2065307951917770955#editor/target=post;postID=2184022222294764653
As we approach Week 9, we are left with a lot of mediocrity. The Green Bay Packers are the surest thing going right now, with the Pittsburgh Steelers starting to close the gap, but both teams face very tough matchups this Sunday when Green Bay plays San Diego and Baltimore Ravens travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. I will provide some of my own insight on how I see things playing out through the rest of the regular season.
AFC
East:
Preseason Midseason
- New York Jets: 12-4 10-6
- New England Patriots: 10-6 12-4
- Miami Dolphins: 9-7 2-14
- Buffalo Bills: 7-9 10-6
As you can tell my preseason predictions were so far off base in this division. I think the Buffalo Bills end up losing to Dallas, New England, Philadelphia, and split with the Jets, which would put them at 10-6. I think the Patriots beat a very good New York Giants team in Week 9, because Belichick and Brady hardly ever lose 2 in a row. I have them losing to Philadelphia once, and I think the Jets beat them in the Week 10 Sunday Night game in Met Life Stadium. I think they close out with a win over Buffalo at Gillette stadium. The race in this division will come down to the last week, and very possibly the Bills-Patriots game in Week 17 could very much decide it, but I think the Patriots will end up a couple wins ahead of everybody when its all said and done. Miami is definitely not the 9 win team I predicted them to be. Their offense wasn't actually all that bad b4 Henne got injured. I think if they solidify the QB position, and upgrade the front 7 on defense, they aren't that far away from competing for a playoff spot. I don't think Sparano gets canned until the end of the season, but he will always make for a good coordinator. I don't doubt his abilities as a head coach, but Miami needs a Cowher or Gruden to help change the culture that "Czar" Bill Parcells failed to do. I think the greatest story this year has to be the Buffalo Bills. The fans deserve it, and that stadium is electric when the team is doing well. I'm not sure if I can see them making the same run next year, but I think we should let the Bills fans enjoy this moment as long as they can. The New York Jets passing game started off slow as I predicted. I have not been a big fan of Cam Cameron or Schotty's playcalling in games this year. I think as an offensive coordinator you have to have trust in your QB to call an effective game, otherwise you are just setting back your whole offense. You've gotta be able to have an identity too. Sanchez is strong in the play-action and plays better when the ground game is working. I don't feel like Holmes and Schotty are very fond of each other dating back to last year in the championship game to the Steelers, and it's starting to show this year. New England's defense is terrible, and their offensive juggernaut better not let off the gas pedal.
North:
Preseason Midseason
- Baltimore Ravens: 11-5 11-5
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5 11-5
- Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10 9-7
- Cleveland Browns: 5-11 6-10
I think the Baltimore Ravens come out on top Sunday Night in Pittsburgh over the Steelers. I feel like the Steelers have a nice crop of wideouts, and are more of an offensive threat when Hines Ward is off the field. I have my doubts that Roethlisberger can keep up at this pace though. Eventually Mendenhall will have to hit the ground running like he was last year, because I don't see the Steelers winning in the playoffs with Roethlisberger dropping back in the pocket, and throwing 40 passes a game. Dalton and A.J Green have been huge surprises this year, coming along as fast as they have. Not a bad season for Mike Brown this year. finally has a decent draft, and gets a decent value from Carson Palmer. Although a report did come out last week saying that he would have rather drafted Ryan Mallett instead of Andy Dalton in the second round. Jay Gruden the offensive coordinator talked him out of it though. Andy Dalton was praised to the be the safest pick at QB coming in and out of the draft, and he has definitely proved those experts right. They've had a pretty soft schedule so far, so I see them slipping a bit in the second half, and just barely missing out on a wild card spot. Cincinatti's defense has been playing very well so far, and I have my doubts on them being able to hold it up, and I don't like my chances of having Dalton winning any high scoring games. I haven't got to watch many Bengals games this year so I'm just going off my gut feeling with how they finish. The Cleveland Browns probably would have took 6-10 without a healthy Peyton Hillis at the beginning of the year. Peyton Hillis has set a pretty ugly example this year on how to handle contract negotiations, and I don't think it will do him any favors in Cleveland in the offseason. Expect him to be shipped out, and for the Browns to go out and find a decent replacement. I think Baltimore comes out on top in this division, and I will stick with them as one of my picks in the AFC Championship game. I believe the Steelers will be an early out opening weekend in the playoffs.
South:
Preseason Midseason
- Houston Texans: 11-5 10-6
- Tennessee Titans: 9-7 8-8
- Indianapolis Colts: 8-8 1-15
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 5-11
I think out of the 8 divisions in football, this one probably interests me the least. I see the Texans hosting a playoff game though, and winning their first playoff game in franchise history this year. Tennessee and Jacksonville have brutal schedules going down the stretch, and I see them failing miserably in the second half. I was going to knock the Tennessee titans down to 7-9, but I figured Chris Johnson could end up getting going eventually, and they may squeak out a victory in one of those difficult games. The colts are horrendous, and it's a tragedy that they have been shown on national television as often as they have been this year. Caldwell and Del Rio are both going to be fired by season's end. Jacksonville has got to go out and get Gabbert some receiving weapons, cause what he has now is absolutely terrible. Mike Thomas, mercedes lewis??? I can't name anymore. those guys are average at best, and I believe Gabbert is too. Too think that He was one of the top 2 QBS ranked coming into this class is very surprising. In a perfect world, Garrard would have started all year, and Gabbert would have had time to develop holding the clipboard and learn a few things. Coming from a spread offense isn't always an easy transition. I'm excited to see what will go on with Indianapolis in the offseason. How they will approach the draft with Andrew Luck, and the decisions that they make in the next 6 months, will greatly impact the next 5-10 years of this franchise. Personally, I would hate to be the G.M of this team right now. You'll get roasted if you trade Peyton Manning because he alone put up a new stadium for the city, and the fan base would be hostile. I think the G.M would be better off trading Manning though, especially cause I have my doubts that he will ever fully recover from his neck surgery. I think they have many roster spots that need to be upgraded to even be competitive (although Peyton Manning has proved otherwise) and I'm not sure it would be safe throwing money at Reggie Wayne right now either since this is his contract year. All I know is everything is up in the air with this franchise right now, and I don't think you'll get burned as bad trading Peyton Manning as you would keeping him. It's a no win situation, because Peyton Manning at 100% still has 4-5 years left in him before he starts any sort of decline. The talent that is left on this roster is not getting any younger though, and I'm not sure if they can even be counted on for another run with Peyton, and guys like Freeney, Mathis and Saturday have been leaned on heavily in the past.
West:
Preseason Midseason
- San Diego Chargers: 12-4 10-6
- Oakland Raiders: 9-7 8-8
- Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 9-7
- Denver Broncos: 6-10 4-12
I think both Oakland and Kansas City have tough second half matchups, and I can see both ending up with 8-8 or 9-7 records.Both currently sit at 4-3 with San Diego right now in the tie for first place. San Diego hasn't been in sync all season, and I expect them to pull out an upset against Green Bay in Week 9. I think with a healthy Jason Campbell and Darren McFadden the raiders were on pace for a 10 win season and a threat to the Chargers for the top spot in the division. I didn't have a problem with Hugh Jackson making the trade for Carson Palmer, given the circumstances, and the familiarity is always helpful! Film don't lie though, and Carson Palmer didn't provide anything worth seeing in the 2-3 years in Cincy. I thought it was a hefty price tag, but I think at that time, it was the only option, and I probably would have made the same move in that situation. I just wouldn't have made it with the highest confidence, more with optimism! Cincy sucks the life out of a lot of athletes though, and I can totally understand why Carson Palmer wanted out of there. It's not that he wanted to run out on his teammates like he did, but the upper management left him no choice, and I have no respect for Marvin Lewis or Mike Brown at all! Carson Palmer knew the franchise was happy with mediocrity, and Cincinnati doesn't have the best training facilities to attract free agents, and Mike Brown isn't known one of the best owners to play for, or work with! Tebow sucks, and I'm sick of his fans saying the coaches aren't doing enough to suit the playcalling to his abilities..Cry me a fucking river! Why should he be any different than any other QB in the league?? It's obvious John Fox and Elway don't have any confidence in him either, they just weren't left with much of a choice, and they needed a reason to keep fans coming to the games, and Orton wasn't doing anything better. I think the media blows the whole thing out of proportion and I'm sick of hearing about it. If he is such a hard worker, why hasn't he changed any of his throwing motion or getting the ball out quicker? The rest of his team sucks also, but Denver can thank Josh McDaniels drafts for the mess they are in now. Didn't help he traded away their 2 superstars Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler either, but I think the team still would have suffered with mediocrity if those 2 hadn't left, because Marshall was too big of personality to handle and needed a change of scenery. He was still a mess from witnessing the Darrent Williams Murderer first hand. Both were to immature to handle anything from a leadership standpoint, and there really wasn't much there above them, to help them succeed! I didn't get much on Kansas City and San Diego in this column. Kansas City has been injury prone but has rallied off 4 straight wins. Haley's wardrobe looks disgusting, and they gave up way to much money to Cassell.. He looks average at best, compared to the other upper echelon players. Chief's defense has been playing better as of late, and I don't think they will be going away anytime soon. They have a good nucleus of young players on offense and defense. I can see the Chiefs and Raiders leapfrogging the Chargers in the future, and fighting for the first place crown, but it just won't be this year. Too many injuries! Other than undervaluing Darren Sproles, Norv Turner seems to be a good coach, but San Diego always fails to come up big in close games, and they def. don't handle adversity very well. They've blown a lot of these last few years with very mediocre teams in that division, and they never were able to do anything with it. I think the playing field is only going to get more even in the future, and the Chiefs and Raiders actually have more promising futures!
NFC
East
Preseason Midseason
- Philadelphia Eagles: 12-4 10-6
- Dallas Cowboys: 11-5 10-6
- New York Giants: 9-7 8-8
- Washington Redskins: 7-9 6-10
As of Week 9 Dallas, Philadelphia and Washington are all tied at 3-4 but the schedule gets easier for Dallas and I think Philadelphia is just ready to finally make a run. New York Giants have a brutal schedule ahead. They are currently in the lead at 5-2, and Eli is backing up his "elite" statement before the season. He's also got me in first place in my fantasy league! Washington is just going to have a repeat of last year, because they don't have any playmakers on offense, and they will have a hard enough time staying in games. I'm optimistic they will squeak out a couple surprise victories but Shanahan definitely hasn't done anything to prove he's any better than Zorn or Gibbs. I'm with Colin Cowherd and thinking Dallas has some very winnable games ahead on the schedule. That includes a victory against Buffalo in Week 11 I believe? Tony Romo has not given any reason to silence any of his critics. I think he will live and die by the sword, and he will not change the way he plays. I'm not sure if I consider him an elite QB though. It's almost as if he hasn't progressed much since his debut season with Parcells. Dallas should be a 5-2 team right now, but Romo pissed away the opening game against the Jets in the meadowlands, and against the lions at home.. Had they won those games, they would have put themselves in very good position to win the division, with an easier second half schedule. The giants remaining games include New England, San Francisco, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas in that order.. with a Battle 4 NY Supremacy with the Jets in Week 16. Doesn't look to promising for them, and that's to bad for Tom Coughlin because 3 straight seasons of missing the playoffs, I'm not sure is going to make the upper management happy. Philadelphia is finally coming into their own, and starting to play a little faster on defense, I think mostly cause they aren't thinking as much. It was going to take time to gel and I think that's what we saw the first few weeks of the season. Cowboys and Eagles are both in must win games for the next 3 weeks though, and Philadelphia isn't guaranteed a victory against Chicago in Week 9, but I think Vick will exploit that very average secondary, and Cutler will give the game away with a couple interceptions underneath the lights on Sunday Night Football. It's gonna be 2009 all over again!
North
Preseason Midseason
- Green Bay Packers: 11-5 13-3
- Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 6-10
- Detroit Lions: 8-8 10-6
- Chicago Bears: 7-9 9-7
Green Bay is the only undefeated team left in the league as Week 9 approaches! With that being said, they will suffer their first loss this Sunday against the San Diego Chargers! It won't get done without their running game though, so Mike Tolbert will have to have a big game, in the absence of C.J matthews! Green Bay will probably have the division locked up by week 15 or 16, but I see them suffering a couple losses in the month of November. The Chargers are one, and the Lions on thanksgiving would be the other one. Hopefully my Vikings give them a run for their money in Week 10 at Lambeau, but that's a tough task for any rookie QB. Detroit (6-2) will make the playoffs with a huge thanks to the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys for blowing up big leads in the second half. If those 2 teams close out the way they should they are no better than an 8-8 team that is talked about way to much. Megatron is a beast, and Stafford is remaining healthy, and making plays as expected. Stafford will have to remain healthy and productive all season though to show me that he deserves to be in the upper echelon of QBs in this league. He's shown me at times this season that he is very capable of deserving that status, but seems rattled when things aren't going as well. Matt Forte (PAY THE MAN) is making me look like a genius for drafting him 9th overall in my fantasy draft. I was licking my chops with that pick, knowing I was going to get a steal. I also picked up Megatron as my second pick. It's hard to find two better players at those positions. The Bears had a brutal schedule this year though, and they are surviving it well so far, but they need to come up with a big win in week 9 against Philadelphia, so they don't fall back to 4-4 going into week 10. The Lions will end up with one of the last wildcard spots. The Vikings (2-6) could very easily be a 4-4 team right now, if they hadn't blown leads earlier in the season, but they still were not going to have enough to get to the postseason. I would almost have traded those 2 blown halves to have seen the debut of Christian Ponder earlier anyways. It was getting to the point where I could hardly stand watching McNabb play anymore. I'm enjoying Vikings games about as much as they were in a playoff race right now. It's a nice breath of fresh air to finally see the transition of seeing a rookie QB trying to lead the team, instead of another stop-gap veteran QB who is running their last marathon. The Future is NOW! I thought the Vikings offense looked really predictable under McNabb, and I felt Musgrave was for some of the blame of the offense being stagnant, but Frazier has insisted that they are calling the same plays with Ponder as they had been with McNabb! Can the offense really look that much different?? It's also nice to know after 4 or 5 years, that our coaches know how to get AP in the passing game.
South
Preseason Midseason
- Atlanta Falcons: 12-4 9-7
- New Orleans Saints: 10-6 11-5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 8-8
- Carolina Panthers: 4-12 6-10
I predicted the Atlanta Falcons to make the Super Bowl in my preseason column, and I'm not seeing that as a likely possibility for the future. They aren't as impressive as I thought they would be on either side of the ball. It's going to be hard enough for them to even make the playoffs. They may be able to sneak out 10 wins, but I don't see it happening. I thought Ray Edwards and Julio Jones would have made more of a sudden impact in their first season, but I think Edwards has 1 sack, and Julio Jones has been hampered by an injury. Roddy White hasn't even been all that productive in the passing game. The New Orleans Saints are probably the best (5-3) team ever. They lost the opening weekend to the Packers, and lost a few weeks ago to the Bucs down in Tampa, which should have been a very winnable game for them. After putting up 62 points against the Colts 2 weeks ago, they laid an egg against a winless but inspired St. Louis Rams team last week. The presence of the World Series Champs St. Louis Cardinals may have had something to do with it. Tampa Bay hasn't had the same firepower in their offense as last year. Josh Freeman seems to be very inconsistent on a weekly basis, and starting to look like another QB (Mark Sanchez) who was drafted before him in the 1st round of the 09 draft. Mike Williams has been MIA in the passing game after an explosive rookie year last year. (Legaratte sp?) Blount will be back in Week 9 from a knee injury. Just in time to face the New Orleans Saints in a huge Division Battle. They are 4-3 right now, and a loss would drop them to 4-4 in a game they are expected to lose. Cam Newton has provided Carolina fans with optimism for a bright future. I didn't think he would come along as quickly as he has, but he showed a lot of character in pointing out Olindo Mare's 31 yard field goal miss as time expired last week to the Minnesota Vikings was not the reason for the loss. He has shown that he can be a leader, and shown his competitiveness first hand. He can't stand losing, and he's got the personality that fans like to see. He's got the body language that shows that he is affected by the outcome of the game. Unlike a Jay Cutler or Donovan Mcnabb. There is no doubt in my mind, if they can fix that defense, and Cam limits some of his turnovers, that he has a great future! I think LaFell could end up being a very good WR2 option along with Steve Smith. They suffered a huge loss at the beginning of the season with Jon Beason (captain and heart of their defense) their starting LB, and I have a feeling they could be a 500 team with him in the lineup.
West
Preseason Midseason
- St. Louis Rams: 9-7 7-9
- Arizona Cardinals: 9-7 4-12
- San Francisco 49ers: 7-9 12-4
- Seattle Seahawks: 5-11 5-11
Can I just stop talking now?? San Francisco has surprised everybody, and Harbaugh deserves coach of the year consideration after seasons end. He has definitely got the most out of all his players this year, in his first year on the job. He had a shortened offseason because of the lockout thrown at him also. As you can tell, there isn't much competition in this division, and never really has been for a few years. I thought St. Louis wouldn't have struggled as much as they had coming in, and I predicted them to win this division in my pre-season column. I do like the addition of Brandon Lloyd b4 the trading deadline though. He played for Josh McHoody in Denver before he got fired and left town. Lloyd should be very familiar with his offense). I think him and Bradford could make for a dangerous combo in the second half of the season, and for the future. Stephen Jackson seems to be a threat again also in the ground game. They have a fairly easy second half schedule, and I can see them making a run like the Cowboys. It won't be enough to get to the postseason, but it may save Spagnuolo his job. Kolb is a bust, and Fitzgerald is probably having 2nd thoughts about signing a long term extension with the Cardinals. I would love nothing more than to see him in Minnesota where he grew up and was a ballboy for many years. I think the 49ers will end up getting the 2nd seed in the playoffs, and having a bye, but as he we have seen before I don't think their recipe for victory will be successful in the playoffs. The playoffs demand a playmaker at the QB position, and Alex Smith won't be able to provide that, especially if they are going up against either the Saints, Cowboys, Eagles. I would love to see a matchup with the Packers to give us some flashbacks to the Favre/Young days but I think one of those teams will be absent for the NFC Championship. The Seahawks sound like they are the only ones confident in Tarvaris Jackson, cause nobody else is. Charlie Whitehurst surely has no future as a starting QB in the league as originally thought. They made a big mistake passing up on Dalton in the draft. T.J could have provided Dalton with some time to study from the sideline. (not that he needs it obviously). Instead they reached for an OT that had a late 2nd round value in James Carpenter.
watch this link!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMLR9xB04YM
